Results

cesm2.ssp245

Metric naive lstm cnn xgboost
diff_of_means -1.09813635 1.45463249 -5.26755698 7.53432929
ratio_of_sd 0.83032297 0.80930366 0.91610227 0.85659374
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.53874742 0.58110132 0.63160336 0.52868345
maximum_error 0.30158247 0.33870968 0.35849057 0.27723676
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.58685931 0.33312993 0.32387788 0.43565736
rainy_hours_ratio_of_means 0.81503814 0.83233812 0.89236771 0.95111680
qqplot_mae 0.02902877 0.03232419 0.02758706 0.01842247
acf_mae 0.15246096 0.11128914 0.08829416 0.10984954
extremogram_mae 0.10876303 0.05816779 0.05722563 0.08327170

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

cesm2.ssp370

Metric lstm xgboost naive cnn
diff_of_means -1.32022209 4.57292652 -4.78145367 -8.99098323
ratio_of_sd 0.84920426 0.87826127 0.89425624 0.98398582
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.59111396 0.52646132 0.55176020 0.64174082
maximum_error 0.33992696 0.27023737 0.31649422 0.36062082
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.22652987 0.38737974 0.37817824 0.24569166
rainy_hours_ratio_of_means 0.79822835 0.90061077 0.79244948 0.85915154
qqplot_mae 0.03265326 0.01949577 0.02846173 0.03011674
acf_mae 0.11692544 0.12096702 0.14700020 0.08098371
extremogram_mae 0.06858446 0.08983164 0.11654691 0.05614258

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

cesm2.ssp585

Metric lstm naive xgboost cnn
diff_of_means -1.29902711 -4.31832085 5.56977207 -8.85792472
ratio_of_sd 0.86962350 0.90056260 0.88992844 1.01050257
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.59014136 0.55098472 0.53346214 0.64933880
maximum_error 0.34783932 0.31466829 0.26749848 0.36731589
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.29166667 0.47377072 0.40682665 0.27901947
rainy_hours_ratio_of_means 0.81870325 0.80824462 0.93673544 0.88585472
qqplot_mae 0.03086494 0.02555128 0.01734938 0.02986056
acf_mae 0.11490876 0.15439154 0.11680691 0.09081659
extremogram_mae 0.07832312 0.12416350 0.09438398 0.07841998

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

ec_earth3.ssp434

Metric xgboost lstm naive cnn
diff_of_means -18.59207382 -22.3137164 -24.88989899 -29.17302237
ratio_of_sd 0.93328717 0.8924362 0.88373877 0.99202944
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.61778900 0.7033289 0.59881932 0.75806841
maximum_error 0.28484480 0.3457091 0.29549604 0.34875228
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.33968980 0.2059953 0.44191137 0.24476586
rainy_hours_ratio_of_means 0.74005558 0.6693176 0.65528133 0.71185764
qqplot_mae 0.03735492 0.0460716 0.05330394 0.04200762
acf_mae 0.14537909 0.1264197 0.18246683 0.11236759
extremogram_mae 0.08180121 0.0491952 0.10270499 0.04149937

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

mri_esm2_0.ssp245

Metric naive cnn lstm xgboost
diff_of_means 19.9946633 20.20588522 20.64402606 30.08157216
ratio_of_sd 0.7089131 0.73845261 0.71071808 0.70675089
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.4509995 0.49036004 0.49123572 0.41584090
maximum_error 0.2805843 0.39440049 0.33292757 0.24802191
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.5692810 0.26169591 0.26265376 0.46119086
rainy_hours_ratio_of_means 0.9954251 1.14108468 1.02563808 1.20391363
qqplot_mae 0.0369468 0.05165201 0.04444941 0.04143946
acf_mae 0.1714060 0.09509487 0.11494648 0.12775202
extremogram_mae 0.1606262 0.09511482 0.08131692 0.12732460

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

mri_esm2_0.ssp370

Metric naive cnn lstm xgboost
diff_of_means 6.05617223 7.43662403 7.75959154 17.31453189
ratio_of_sd 0.78739496 0.82403007 0.79002474 0.78391681
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.51062073 0.57419351 0.56234573 0.48724322
maximum_error 0.27510651 0.38953135 0.31892879 0.24041388
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.56521148 0.31358683 0.26923077 0.46072225
rainy_hours_ratio_of_means 0.87422216 1.00546633 0.91614891 1.06031972
qqplot_mae 0.02921536 0.03474913 0.03302241 0.02451397
acf_mae 0.15434915 0.08193290 0.10347224 0.10798308
extremogram_mae 0.10638560 0.05594005 0.04842913 0.07812940

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

mri_esm2_0.ssp434

Metric cnn naive lstm xgboost
diff_of_means 18.02545632 18.19279295 18.70696705 28.62039604
ratio_of_sd 0.77835808 0.73431736 0.73277941 0.72829615
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.50057156 0.46516295 0.49991387 0.42715028
maximum_error 0.41205113 0.27601948 0.32501522 0.25197809
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.25504992 0.47267594 0.25457583 0.40867497
rainy_hours_ratio_of_means 1.14239980 0.97850170 1.01225462 1.19169116
qqplot_mae 0.04899033 0.03580146 0.04285723 0.03954678
acf_mae 0.08843996 0.15292765 0.11116283 0.10924999
extremogram_mae 0.08454846 0.13450972 0.07794449 0.10554910

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97